June 27, 2011
My college microeconomics class meets John Lackey and JD Drew

What do they have in common? They both make a lot of money, and both have provided very little production (maybe that’s a bit of an understatement.) Lackey has surpassed Yankee Aj Burnett as the worst pitching contract in the AL East and maybe all of baseball. Certainly personal issues have to be somewhat responsible for Lackey’s disaster of a season; Lackey’s wife has been battling breast cancer. And while I sympathize with the very serious and very scary reality of his personal life, he and his 7.36 ERA has become a major liability in the rotation.

JD Drew, who has gotten a ton of unfair criticism in Red Sox career, has been completely deserving of that criticism this year. A nice little stat pulled up by WEEI’s Alex Spier, the Red Sox have the worst team average, OBP, and slugging in the entire american league out of the right field position. Is JD Drew a plus defender, yes, but he’s no Willie Mays in the outfield, and he needs to be in order to justify his offensive woeful offensive output.

Now I’ve never believed this front office/ manager played/kept players just because of there salaries. A highschool economics student could explain to you the basic principles of sunk costs, and the Red Sox have been willing to admit their mistakes by trading away two big contracts while taking on part of their salaries. (See Renteria, Edgar. Lugo, Julio) This is what they need to do in the case of JD Drew…Not that I’m delusional enough another team would possible trade for him, but when Josh Reddick provides maybe not a spectacular (Don’t let the .414 fool you, the guy hit .230 at AAA), but at least viable alternative, he needs more playing time. Lots, not just against lefties, but against righties too. The Lackey case is a little more difficult however. Miller would provide value in the bullpen, and would be to the Red Sox long term benefit if they can right Lackey and hope to salvage a solid pitcher in his next 3 years (ugh). I just hope that they are wary that doing so could also be the possible difference in a division title, or a wild card birth

11:50pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx6XGIqq
(Notes: 9)
  
Filed under: JD Drew John Lackey Red Sox Baseball MLB 
June 23, 2011
Token picture…

Token picture…

10:02pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx6OFZ1v
(Notes: 2)
  
Filed under: Prince Fielder Dunkin Donuts 
June 23, 2011
The Should Be All-Stars. NL Edition

Yesterday after voicing my frustration over the all-star voting process, I posted my AL picks for the ideal 25 man American League roster. Today we naturally move on the NL side…

C. Brian Mcann, Yadier Molina. Fans: Mcann

Mcann’s constant production makes him not only the best catcher in the NL, but also one of the best players

1B Prince Fielder, Joey Votto Fans: Fielder

After a relatively poor 2010, Fielder has turned it on this season, along with Matt Kemp, emerging as an early MVP canidate

2B Rickie Weeks. Fans: Brandon Phillips.

Unfortunately for Weeks, Phillips has garnered popularity through his fantasy baseball numbers over past few years. Weeks has been the best second baseman in baseball period over the past year and a half.

3B Placido Polanco. Fans Polanco

You might be asking yourself, has no other NL thirdbaseman been better than Placido Polanco. Really?.. really? Sadly no

SS Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki. Fans: Tulowitzki

I love Tulo and I think he might be the best shortstop in the league, but he isn’t close to as deserving as Reyes, who’se 335 average is making a Carl Crawford like contract push.

OF Matt Kemp, Andrew Mcutchen, Ryan Braun, Justin Upton, Lance Berkman

Shane Victerino and Jay Bruce kind of get screwed over here, but that’s just a testament to how good the above guys have been. Lance Berkman and his 1000 plus OPS gets last years Yankee’s reject barely in.

Pitchers: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum, Jar Jurjens, Tommy Hanson, Shaun Marcum, Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, Carlos Marmol, Brian Wilson

Good look with that Philly rotation NL wild card winner…

That does it, wow that took a lot longer than I thought. Also check out my buddy Vandy311. Hilarious take on sports and pop culture.

9:59pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx6OF9L1
(Notes: 4)
  
Filed under: MLB MLB Allstar Game Vandy311 Matt Kemp Andrew Mcutchen Ryan Braun Roy Halladay Rickie WEeks Placido Polanco Jose Reyes 
June 22, 2011
The Should Be All-Stars. AL Edition

I don’t want to say the all-star game has become a joke, because I watch it every year and enjoy it, so calling it a joke would make me an idiot… but it’s hardly the event that it’s capable of being. The all-star game should be a combination of the best players and the players having the best seasons being able to showcase their talent on a national stage. Naturally because of fan voting, and fan ignorance, the starting rosters will never quite be that. This year however,  fan voting took a turn for the deep end.

Recently, the  Red Sox and Giants have collaborated to have their fans vote for each others players. In a system where big markets are already favored, that’s the last thing we need if we’re striving to get the most deserving players. As a Red Sox fan, I find this stunt embarrassing. Do we really need to cheat as fans in order to try to get  Jarred Saltalamacchia into an exhibition game? The New York market as always, is continuing to muddle the process. After somehow getting the now .238 hitting Nick Swisher into the game over Kevin Youkilis last year, they currently have the now very mediocre Derek Jeter, and very average Russell Martin slated to start the game. Add those problems with voting to the seemingly endless expanding rosters to get any player who is halfway decent into the game, the mid summer classic is far, far away from what it was in the 60’s and 70’s.

So I’ve given up on really caring who will be the all-stars, and turn my focus to should be the all-stars. That is, if each league had a 25 man roster, who would start and who would play. I came up with this…

AL

C: Alex Avilia, Carlos Santana. Fans: Russell Martin.

Hey New York, Avila has a higher average, OBP and Slugging percentage than Russell Martin. But don’t worry, Russell Martin probably is the best catcher in the league

1B: Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera. Fans: Gonzalez

It’s Paul Konerko, not Mark Teixeira who gets the short end of the stick here…

Gonzo

2B: Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia. Fans: Robinson Cano.

See previous post. Also see Cano’s home run totals on the road. Zobrist continues to be one of the most underrated players in baseball.

3B. Alex Rodriguez. Fans: Rodriguez

Not worth 30 million dollars a year but worth an all-star vote

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera. Fans: Derek Jeter

Jeter not worth 17 million dollars… also not worth an all-star vote

OF Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Quentin. Fans: Bautista, Granderson, Josh Hamilton

Jacoby Ellsbury needs to start, but I think Brett Gardner has accompished the impossible becoming the first underrated Yankee of all time…

DH: David Ortiz. Fans:Ortiz

Read last months post

Pitchers: Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Dan Haren, James Shields, Michael Pineada, David Robertson, Jordan Walden, Mariano Rivera

National League coming tomorrow…

8:01pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx6Lnpqn
(Notes: 2)
  
Filed under: Adrian Gonzalez Alex ROdriguez All Star Game American League Baseball Baseball Ben Zobrist Boston Red Sox Brett Gardner CC Sabathia Carlos Quentin Curtis Granderson Dan Haren David Ortiz David Robertson Derek Jeter Dustin pedroia Felix Hernandez JOrdan Walden Jacoby Ellsbury James Shields Jered Weaver Jose Bautista Josh Beckett Josh Hamilton Justin Verlander MIguel Cabrera MLB MLB Mariano Rivera 
June 22, 2011
Dustin Pedroia’s Curious Season

It’s easy to look at Dustin Pedroia’s 2011 season now that we are almost halfway through and call it somewhat of a disappointment. Considering the fact that he has constantly posted OPS above 800 and was the 2008 MVP with a .326 average, a measly .270 with 6 home runs don’t seem to stack up to what we’ve become accustomed to. Those numbers however, don’t tell the whole story. Pedroia has been JD Drew patient this year, and with 52 walks already, he is on pace to eclipse 100 for the first time in his career. On a team with Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and David Ortiz hitting  behind him, table setting is a much more important asset than run production. Pede’s .386 OBP leads all major league second baseman, eclipsing rival Robinson Cano’s OBP by almost 50 points.

Defensively too, Pedroia has been nothing short of stellar (no pun intended). Fangraphs estimates that Pedroia has saved 8.6 runs (also leads all second baseman) on defense compared to the average second baseman. As someone who has watched the majority of Red Sox games this year, I certainly believe this can be backed up by the eye ball test as Pedroia has been both steady and has made his fair share of spectacular plays.

The facts above aren’t to say that we shouldn’t expect more than a .270 average from arguably the best second baseman in baseball, I just think it needed to be highlighted that Pedroia is finding other ways to contribute at elite levels. When the average gets closer to the .300 levels (Definitely when not if), Pedroia will once again get the proper recognition for his contributions, even if the casual fan looking at a fantasy baseball stat-line doesn’t see those contributions now.

2:20pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx6L7b4y
(Notes: 6)
  
Filed under: Dustin Pedroia Red Sox Adrian Gonzalez Kevin Youkilis Robinson Cano Fangraphs 
June 21, 2011
How to handle the David Ortiz situation?

David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez have been far and away the two most productive hitters on the Red Sox this season. Problem is they are both first baseman, and solely first baseman.. How do you get Ortiz’s bat in the lineup during the nine games of interleague away games when Gonzalez has been one of the two best hitters in baseball (See Jose Bautista)? Adrian Gonzalez recently proposed agreeing to play right field. Having the slowest player on the team patrolling that amount of area creates a liability and potential injury risk. With that said, JD Drew as good as he is defensively is a huge drop off from Ortiz, and sitting Ortiz for nine games during one of the hottest stretches in the past five years is not fair to him.

The way I’d handle it, considering there is no perfect solution is to play Gonzalez in right, but only a few games to minimize his injury risk, but enough to give Ortiz a chance to stay warm and have your best possible lineup out there at least a few games.

Start Gonzalez at first 5 games

Start Gonzalez in right 3 games

Sit Gonzalez 1 game

Start Ortiz at first 4 games.

Bench Ortiz 5 games

1:41pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx6Izl8h
(Notes: 4)
  
Filed under: David Ortiz Adrian Gonzalez JD Drew Red Sox Boston Jose Bautista 
June 12, 2011
On Fire

The Red Sox won their 7th straight today, dismantling the Toronto Blue Jays 16 to 4. After starting the year 2 and 10, they they have gone 37 and 16, a pace probably even exceeding the most optimistic Sox fans expectations.This team is hitting on all cylinders right now, and are starting to resemble the team we all thought they could be after the Carl Crawford signing. Still concerning despite his relatively strong start today, is John Lackey and his ridiculous ERA as well as the Tim Wakefield/ Alfredo Aceves combination in the 4 and 5 starts. It will be interesting if the Red Sox look to address that during the trade deadline. Regardless, it’s hard to argue that the Red Sox are anything less than the best team in baseball right now.

12:40am  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx6036l7
(Notes: 3)
  
Filed under: red sox MLB BLue Jays Carl Crawford 
June 6, 2011
David Ortiz

Has anyone else realized how much of a monster Ortiz has been? For all the well deserved props Adrian Gonzalez has been recieving, one could argue that Ortiz has been the best offensive player for the Red Sox. Playing mostly full time, even against lefties, Ortiz has put up a 325/ 392/594 line putting him on pace to have his best season since 2007. His 355 average against lefties, while definitely unsustainable has certainly been remarkable and has largely been due to his ability to go the opposite field. You wonder if Gonzalez’s opposite field hitting style has rubbed off on him at all? Regardless, dude’s been a beast…

12:19pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx5qdPE9
(Notes: 2)
  
Filed under: MLB Red Sox David Ortiz Adrian Gonzalez 
April 24, 2011
Dice K

Daisuke Matsuzaka over his last 2 starts. 15 innings pitched, 4 walks, 2 hits, 0 runs, 12 strikeouts… What??

I don’t know what to make of this. Part fluke, part this guy realized he needed to pitch well to keep his job. Whatever the reasons, i’ll take it.

Revision 7/5/11: This guy might never play for the Red Sox again. I’m not sure bust applies here, but if not, just short of it.

1:00pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx4a2Ca7
(Notes: 1)
  
Filed under: Daisuke Matsuzaka Red Sox MLB Baseball 
April 20, 2011
16 Through

So it’s been a less than terrific start for the 2011 Boston Red Sox. When teams start this badly in baseball and its attributed to small sample size, it makes me wonder if the same things happen in the NFL. Like if the most talented team in baseball can go 5-11, who’s to say that the most talented team in the NFL won’t go 7-9 or 8-8. Yes I know, two completely different sports; my overall point is the fewer the games, the less representative team record is going to be of team talent. (Weren’t the Heat 8-8?) Makes it more impressive what the Colts and Patriots have done the past decade.

Back to the Sox, the previous point remains, its early.  While there may be concerns with individual players and positions, its essential to keep in mind that we are 1/10 of the way through. Call it the law of averages, here are 5 things that won’t be the same at the end of the season as they are right now.

1. Carl Crawford will not hit under .150. Yes, it’s clear he’s pressing, reminiscent of Mark Teixeira’s start with New York, and yes his contract is unprecedented for a speed player. Unfortunately for Carl, I think its going to  be JD Drew syndrome all over again with him. If he hits 290/350/450 with 15 homers, fans aren’t going to be happy with the money he’s getting. That doesn’t mean that his defense and speed aren’t going to make him an incredibly value player…

2. The pitching staff won’t have a league worst ERA at seasons end. Do I have concerns with the rotation? Yes. I was at the latest Daisuke start, and he was remarkably efficient, yet do we have any reason to believe he’s not prone to blow up again next start. He’s still miles away from the sub 4era pitcher everyone had hoped he was going to be when initially signed. Clay Bucholz is the real concern. There was no way he was going to repeat his 2010 performance, and I think in this case the early 2011 results are indicative of that. Fans expecting an ERA even within a run of last year’s are expecting too much. A guy with his stuff should strike way more people out. With that said, I think lots of teams can survive with Clay and Daisuke as their respective 3 and 5 starters.

3. Jed Lowrie will not finish the year hitting over 500… (oh really now?) Not to milk my own ego, but I was one of the many calling for Jed to start the year at shortstop, and he has certainly made me look smart. If (a huge if) he stays healthy, I think we are still looking at a 750- 800 OPS short stop, which if he continues to be solid defensively, is a borderline all star caliber player. 

4. Jason Varitek won’t hit under .100, but the catching situation is still really concerning. Varitek can’t hit and really hasn’t been able to since 2007. If this is the year that Varitek goes from bad hitter to just plain pathetic I think Theo is going to need to be looking to address that via trade in July. I guess I’m just not on the Salty bandwagon. If they aren’t going to get offense from that position, I would love at least the ability for their catchers to play just a tiny bit of defense. Seems like thats too much to ask for from these two.

5. The Red Sox won’t finish in last place… again obvious. It’s just a question of whether or not the hole the Red Sox have put them in have made the wild card a more likely option than the division. But again, at this juncture of the season, it is way to early to lose hope. If the Red Sox play at the 100 win pace that we all expected at the beginning of the season, we still have a 95 win team on our hands. That should be plenty to guarantee a playoff birth, and maybe even a division title.

Get away from the Tobin! It's too early

Get away from the Tobin. Way to early Sox fans…

1:42pm  |   URL: http://tmblr.co/ZqQZwx4Syp9z
Filed under: Red Sox Cal Crawford Jed Lowrie Clay Bucholz Baseball Boston REd Sox Daisuke Matsuzaka Jason Varitek 
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